Goa's Coastal Settlements Need Survival Strategy

by NANDKUMAR KAMAT
Posted on 2009-02-09
THE local effects of global warming are here. But the Goa assembly was so much preoccupied with the issue of saving the alleged encroachments, within coastal regulation zone, that it did not think it proper to address the major question of disaster preparedness in the wake of the rising global sea level.
The winter in Goa has become indistinguishable from summer. Trees are producing unseasonal flowers. October and December 2008, were the warmest months on the records of Goa observatory. Goans keen to get rid of waste by burning, have engineered acrid smogs, mistaken for normal, odour free fog, thanks to thermal inversion and huge loading of air with fine particulate matter. ‘Goan Haze’ is a cloud of anthropogenic dust and soot which now envelops the landmass between Vengurla to Kumtha.
Sixty years ago, cultural historian, late Anant Dhume, had held a fossilised marine conch in his hand and wondered about its’ origin in the hilly areas of Sattari, a location several kilometers from the present coastline. The BSNL contractor was digging a roadside trench from Agacaim to Panaji, to lay underground optical fibre cables. The workers hired by him could not believe their eyes when they continuously excavated huge deposits of marine fossils-mostly windowpane oyster shells and seashells at Siridao, a location two kilometers away from the present beach. “There could be an ancient paleobeach here,” exclaimed Dr Rajiv Nigam, NIO’s specialist on past climate and the Pleistocene epoch, whom I led to the spot for investigation. Mr Dhume and Dr Nigam were confirming major geodynamic and paleo-oceanographic events. Fluctuating sea levels had created Goa’s present landmass. This is remarkably true when we look at the almost linear coastline of Salcete taluka. The Sal river is a hydrogeological oddity. Instead of meeting the Arabian sea somewhere near Benaulim where it comes within half a kilometers from the sea, it runs another 20 kilometres to the south to meet the sea at Betul. The dense settlements, merely 4-8 metres above present mean sea level in the strip between Sal rivers’ western bank and the High Tide line (HTL), are as vulnerable to global sea level rise, as are the islands of Maldives. The main question is the safety, security and relocation of this population.
An ecological Armageddon is waiting to happen in Salcete. A NIO study in 1992 commissioned by central government had shown that Goa may lose between 6-14 thousand hectares of land to encroaching sea. This would be an irreversible process. Another study by TERI had concluded that Goa would lose 5 per cent of the landmass due to advancing sea. TERI report had also shown Goa to be the most vulnerable coastal state in India in terms of loss of coastal lands. Ecological and geological catastrophes do not follow time frames of predictive models. We have seen this in successive episodes of massive coastal erosion in Goa (Dhavalkhajan, Betalbhatim, Benaulim, Colva, Anjuna, Coco beach). World’s best coastal engineers are advising the nations to shift residential structures away from the coasts. This needs to be done systematically in phases, without any scare or panic, based on a scientific rehabilitation and relocation policy. However, India’s most vulnerable state, Goa, is interested only in some temporary measures-like erecting expensive hard anti erosion structures on soft beaches and regularising the encroachments within the CRZ.
World over the traditional coastal communities have preferred to live close to the coast at great risks to their lives and livelihood. If the CRZ notification is going to be blind to the ethnic rights, human rights and constitutional rights of the genuine coastal communities then it would be a man made disaster. Although the Global sea level rise predictions were based on 80-100 years scale, things are changing rapidly. Sea level may rise inexplicably in some parts in India defying all models and predictions. Coastal communities would become ‘ecological refugees’ even if sea level rises by just one metre. There is no higher ground between Cansaulim’s Conception hill and the Betul cliffs. In case of irreversible sea level rise where would the government relocate and rehabilitate the thousands of affected people? No town in Goa has temporary shelters for disaster affected people. The government has not prepared a policy on disaster preparedness.
The state government needs to approach the Planning commission on this point. Between Pernem to Polem, more than 50 thousand people would be affected. For their relocation and rehabilitation the government would have to survey, identify and permanently reserve minimum five thousand hectares of land. Government may even think of creating new townships to accommodate these “ecological refugees.” The government would have to modify the existing legislations and rules to discourage constructions in areas where the land is less than six metres above the mean sea level. Property value of all such lands in Goa would be automatically zero as the sea begins to show its impact. The High Tide line marks only the amplitude of the waves without taking into consideration the altitude from mean sea level. What matters for a sea level rise based disaster prevention scenario, is the altitude.
Constructions and economic assets on higher ground (above six metres, optimally ten metres) would be safer. The ancestors of Goans who built the massive mud embankments to protect the Khazan/saline paddy fields kept their height at six metres. But they did this without anticipating global warming. Under the ‘sea level rise scenario,’ the tidal amplitude would also rise by at least two metres. That would cause another catastrophe in estuarine zones of Goa, the washing away of all the protective embankments less than six to eight  metres in height. Therefore the massive geoengineering work of fortification of major Khazan embankments needs to begin immediately. Uniformly the height of all these bunds would have to be raised by minimum three metres. This would require 30 million cubic metres of material, ten thousand workers and more than 20 years.
This work can be undertaken under rural employment guarantee scheme in 88 village panchayats, which have khazan lands. Global warming is a global reality and appears as a real threat to Goa’s vulnerable coastal settlements. So why not prepare a
survival strategy?