Separatists in Valley Down but Not Out

by KULDIP NAYAR
Posted on 2009-01-07
STATE elections in Jammu and Kashmir may not have provided many answers but it has made one thing clear that the Hurriyat Conference has been exaggerating its strength and lessening the exasperation of people over the kind of politics it has been pursuing. It was wrong in assessing the mood of the Valley because the voters rejected roundly the Hurriyat’s call to boycott polls. Nearly 61 per cent of the voters queued up in severe winter to elect their representatives. As many as 354 candidates contested to return 87 members to the assembly. It was democracy versus the boycott call.
The Hurriyat is frozen in the time when the Valley was agog with the demand for azadi. People have moved on as they have realised the ground realities are far different from what the Hurriyat has been peddling.
This does not mean that the Valley’s alienation from India has gone. It only means that the Kashmiris are questioning the Hurriyat way of seeking a settlement with New Delhi. They are sick and tired of violence and extremism and want peace and normalcy which will give them back the tourists and free them from terrorists. Even those with the gun did not disturb the polls lest they should invoke the voters’ anger.
Without doubt, the Kashmiris want an identity of their own. The pattern of voting indicates that. Both the National Conference (NC) and People’s Democratic Party (PDP) have won practically all seats in the Valley—the first getting 28 and the second 21—underlining the aspiration of the Kashmiris to be different from the rest of India. The NC asked for autonomy plus and the PDP proposed self-rule and dual currency. Yet both never preached any status outside the Indian Union. It is, however, significant that the PDP increased its tally from 16 to 21 by taking a hawkish line. It looks as if it will continue to do that.
New Delhi will delude itself if elections make it behave that it can arrive at a settlement without the separatists. They represent a dream which tickles the imagination even if it remains unfulfilled. However, there is a new opportunity for the governments at Srinagar and New Delhi to start afresh: begin a dialogue with the separatists so as to retrieve them and to hammer out a settlement which is acceptable to all the three—India, Kashmir and Pakistan.
The disconcerting fallout of elections is the sharp division between the Kashmir and Jammu regions. The NC has won four seats in the Jammu region but that too from Poonch where the Muslims have a majority. The PDP has increased its support by 3.8 per cent but mostly from Poonch and Rajouri. Communal polarisation is also visible because the BJP which had only one seat has returned 11. Its percentage of voting has also increased in Jammu region.
The Amar Nath yatra agitation over the piece of land allotted temporarily to the management board came in handy to the BJP. It was able to mix religion with politics and reap the harvest of agitated Hindu voters. The party also benefited from the negligence of the Jammu region as pointed out by various commissions. The Valley’s main parties found less support of Hindus. The Hurriyat too has no base in the Jammu region because it has preferred to give its movement an Islamic edge. The new government at Srinagar will have to give the Jammu region a sense of participation. Otherwise, the voice for Jammu to be part of a neighbouring state in India may become
louder.
The Congress, part of the ruling coalition after the last election, has suffered the most. It has lost 10.7 per cent of the electorate, 5.3 per cent in Jammu and 5.4 per cent in the Valley, although in terms of seats, its loss is only three. Its tally is reduced from 20 to 17. The main reason is, it has been held responsible for the Amar Nath land debacle, although it was the PDP Minister who had approved the land allotment when Ghulam Nabi Azad was the chief minister.
The NC and the Congress which have joined hands to form a coalition government represent the middle-of-road approach. Their problem will be how to deal with the PDP and the BJP, both hardliners. The PDP will try to distance Kashmir from the rest of India and the BJP for closer integration. Election results show that the PDP, was helped by the Jammat-e-Islami, headed by pro-Pakistani Syed Ali Shah Gillani.
The NC and the Congress coalition give it an absolute majority, 45 in the house. Yet, the history of relations between the two is not too happy. The first government in the state was that of Sheikh Abdullah, the NC chief and grandfather of Omar Abdullah. Jawaharlal Nehru was the prime minister of the Congress party. They were personal friends and comrades-in-arms in the struggle of independence against the British. This was an ideal combination. Yet they fell out and the Sheikh remained under detention for almost 12 years.
Once Nehru wrote to the Maharaja of Kashmir saying, “the only person who can deliver the goods in Kashmir is Abdullah.” But they went so apart that Nehru wrote to him: “I greatly regret that you should have taken up a position which indicates that you do not give value to any friendly advice that we might give and, indeed, consider it as improper interference, of which you take a very great view.”
Omar Abdullah, son of Farooq Abdullah, has an advantage because he knows the Gandhi family well. But personal relationship may matter little if and when Srinagar pushes to implement the autonomy resolution which Farooq vainly tried to do.
The Central government’s authority, according to the Instrument of Accession Act, extends to Defence, Foreign Affairs and Communications. If New Delhi agrees to confine itself to three subjects, most of the separatists may come along. They have asked for azaadi, but have never defined it. Is New Delhi ready to roll back from the extra space it has occupied since the Instrument of Accession Act? Can Pakistan do likewise in Azad Kashmir, giving it all the subjects except Defence, Foreign Affairs and Communications? Elections in Jammu and Kashmir have provided yet another chance to sort out these questions. EOM