Nuclear Deal: India’s Passport to Energy Security

by NANDKUMAR KAMAT
Posted on 2008-09-08
SITTING in Goa, I am enjoying the heavy environmental subsidies which other states are giving us by generating thermal power. They bear the loads of air pollution and mountains of ash. Every super thermal power plant connected to the Western and Southern grid has its’ own pathetic story of environmental mismanagement. But we seldom show concern because we’re only interested in receiving our power. If we begin to feel guilty when we use such environmentally subsidised power then we would have to sit in the dark and do away with all electrical appliances. The key to understand the growing energy crisis in the world is to know our country’s own limits.The leftist comrades may wish to see the death of the nuclear deal but may not use their fraternal relations with Communist China to get a Uranium supply deal. India needs to buy some time before we are capable of using our vast Thorium reserves and the world achieves breakthroughs in nuclear fusion research, magnetohydrodynamics and super efficient solar energy generation.
The research on fully indigenous Thorium based nuclear fuels is still at the preliminary stage. So it makes sense that while continuing our indigenous research and without sacrificing the strategic defense interests – we look for short term strategic energy supply options – for the next 15-20 years at the very least.
As an economist Dr Manmohan Singh had a better and balanced perception of the intricate relationship between energy security and sustainable economic growth. His vision led to the inking of 123 agreement between USA and India. It was a golden handshake between two of the largest democracies that intended to bury the ghosts of cold war politics. It was first real step to end India’s international nuclear untouchability since 1974. Without the 123 agreement India would never have been able to knock on the doors of the Vienna based Nuclear Suppliers group (NSG) despite collaborations with France and Russia in reactor technology. It was the US initiative, which made it possible for India to present our case before the NSG.
We need to have much more faith in our scientists and engineers than our politicians. That’s why when reputed technologists like Dr Anil Kakodkar and Dr Abdul Kalam stood by the nuclear deal and clearly set out the limits of our national interests it should have been easy for a national consensus to emerge. At no point of time in history was India so vulnerable in energy security.
Globalisation and economic liberalisation has boosted energy demand. Energy economists did not foresee such a spurt. On the other side there are international pressures under the Kyoto protocol and Bali resolutions to cut down emissions of green house gases. So far India has escaped by giving the lame statistical excuse of per capita emissions. But global warming and climate change is not a function of per capita emissions and natural catastrophes don’t recognise national boundaries. Caught in a peculiar situation – ensuring energy security without contributing to global warming on the background of escalating oil prices, India had no real options left. Many nuclear reactors are operating at far lesser capacity because India has a shortage of Uranium. The good news from Vienna has now made it possible to import Uranium within three months and operate these reactors to their maximal capacity. The much debated one time exceptional waiver given to India by the NSG after protracted negotiations and ace diplomatic efforts is an indirect recognition of India’s indispensability on the global economic platform.
India was prepared to forget the deal if the NSG were not to give a waiver on our own terms. That would have led to not only a loss of face for the international diplomacy of USA, Russia and France but it also would have increased India’s forced dependence on highly polluting carbon based economy. With limited reserves of low ash and low sulphur exploitable coal deposits, scanty and low grade Uranium deposits, mounting local opposition to large hydroelectric power projects and with a power hungry growing economy India’s energy options would have run out. The NSG waiver was a ‘win win’ situation for both India and exporter countries of nuclear goods and services.
The nuclear trade with India is estimated to be worth $ 100 billions and there are high stakes for suppliers of Uranium and nuclear reactor technologies. The nuclear deal is going to open thousands of employment opportunities in India and within a few years there would be renewed interest among the students to join courses related to nuclear physics and reactor engineering. The Indian industries in the private and public sector are going to benefit from the new liberal trade regime. New partnerships with US, French and Russian firms are going to bolster technology transfer and new designs.
As Gopalkrishnan, Senior Fellow, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, John F Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, had mentioned in his excellent review (2002) – “India’s indigenous capabilities in the PHWR technology have presently reached a level where the country is in a position to confidently export such reactors, especially to the developing countries who are interested in setting up nuclear power plants or research reactors. However, given the conflicts with the western nations in the nuclear arena, including India’s non-adherence to the NPT, it is certain that India will face significant roadblocks if it were to attempt nuclear exports at present. The removal of these difficulties through an equitable normalisation of nuclear relations between India and the rest of the world is, therefore, certainly in the overall global interest.”
The NSG waiver has now clearly paved the way for India to enter into the lucrative international market for nuclear goods and services. India is not a banana republic. There are checks and balances, which would not allow any proliferation of nuclear materials or technologies. India would be in a position to trade now on equal terms with members of World Trade Organisation. The nuclear deal would also permit flourishing of nuclear research activities in IITs and universities which could dream to have their own research reactors. The suspense created in Vienna last week was a testimony to India’s strength and confidence.
The message for the dissenting countries was loud and clear and it must have been heard from Ireland to Australia – India would have walked out of the deal if consensus were not to materialise. With global economy in recession that would have been a bad news to many countries because a minimum $100 billions were at stake. Besides, France and Russia would have anyhow found out ways to help India. But finally India ‘s moment had arrived. The partnership with USA proved diplomatically fruitful. Now it is just a matter of a few months before India gets its’ deserving passport to short term energy security.