Afghanistan: Another Quagmire for the USA

by I M MOHSIN
Posted on 2008-10-07
AS per their publicised program, the Taliban are upping the ante in Afghanistan. Their time-tested tactics turn on, generally, smart hit and run raids. In the history of guerrilla-warfare, such strategy secures success against conventional armed forces. This also appears to be prompted by the terrible asymmetry of power between the combatants. Even a cursory look at the Vietnam War and the Soviet rout in Afghanistan in late 1980s would underline how high-flown armies of rich countries choose to concede to, what emerges as, the inevitable.
It is a strange coincidence that the losing-power always, generally, has a surrogate regime in place which fosters a vested interest in the status quo and which prolongs the agony of all-concerned. Such proxies, invariably, suffer immediate liquidation as soon as the ground realities change. As the ‘bushwhackers’ always appear to get motivation from some war cry like ‘US imperialism in Vietnam’ and ‘Godless communism’ in Afghanistan, they fight with the trust that they have nothing to lose except their ‘chains’. No wonder, Mr Karzai in a recent interview to the German media wished he had ‘Taliban’ fighting for him instead of the assorted forces that keep him going somehow as ‘the mayor of Kabul.’
As the NATO forces flounder in Afghanistan in the face of the ‘upswing’, as Secretary, Dr Rice puts it, in Taliban incursions; Pakistan is also bedevilled by the fall-out of such activity. Now the co-chairman of PPP and the president-in-the-making has also confirmed to the BBC that the ‘insurgency’ in the country being countered has yielded ‘an upper hand’ to the dissidents.
While vowing to step up the fight against ‘terrorism’, he has called for the up-gradation of the fight for final fulfilment of national interest. This is despite the fact that a sizeable number of our forces have been killed in various on-going operations in many parts of the country bordering the trouble-ridden Afghanistan.
Unfortunately, the International Security Assistance Force(ISAF) strategy in Afghanistan appears to be marred by confusion and the exaggerated reliance on rhetoric. This may be conditioned by the consideration of the concerns shared by the US/ NATO about their forces deployed on a menacing mission as well as some more pressing agenda of the former.
While the ground realities project reverses, the propaganda claims otherwise. The foreign forces feel fairly fearful in the Pashtun areas, generally, while those deployed in the North/West are relatively at home. Accordingly, indiscriminate use of air force appears to be the preferred option by the ISAF whenever some ‘information’ is received about Taliban activity or movement. Most of such sorties set off resentment among the survivors as, so far, very often the victims of such bombing turn out to be civilians, women and children.
In a tribal society, killing by an enemy entails equitable revenge as per the traditions. As the bombing involves foreign forces, the umbrage is even greater. In real terms, the US missiles may be killing a few Taliban but the death of innocents inflates the number of casualties stigmatising such contentious conduct.
Despite his awful situation, even Mr Karzai is forced to ‘protest’ to his ‘allied forces’ over such faux pas as he rightly fears public reaction. The latest such bombing killed more than 80 women and children in Heart, Shindand in the West. Mr Karzai felt so miserable that he sacked the local Army General for lack of communication with his foreign-counterparts.
In addition he protested and offered apologies to the bereaved families. In the past, the foreign forces have, generally, tended to turn a deaf ear to such protests. A UN investigation into the incident has, as per the BBC, upheld the version of the Afghan government. Still the US enquiry appears to be buying time despite threatening protests by the local people in Heart.
The deaths in Shindand would carry long-term after-effects. It would encourage the Taliban to exploit the prevailing pique to launch acts of sabotage etc to corner the ISAF. While such questionable acts enhance the dangers for the status quo, they also induce the Taliban to show their muscle in Pakistan. Prima facie there appears to be something wrong with intelligence collection. Too much of reliance on drones etc and deficient co-ordination among the foreign and local forces may also be responsible for some mischief.
It also highlights the fact that the Afghan outfit has many problems getting authentic information, which is understandable as the ‘insurgency’ it faces is horrendous.
Oxfam has now warned that unless substantial aid is rushed to Afghanistan, many people may die of starvation in the winter, which is round the corner. The NGO has also pointed out the casual way in which most donors, generally, honour their commitments. Any failure of this type will only result in more Afghans dying while their country is ‘occupied.’ Such misery will intensify anger against Mr Karzai and his powers-that-be. It will produce a bumper-crop of defiance and massively swell the ranks of the Taliban.
US too often talks of winning the ‘minds and hearts of’ the Afghans. It does not fool many Afghans though it may be a useful political gimmick for misleading the ill-informed ‘good guys’ in the US. The prevailing scepticism is best reflected in the question asked by a European columnist ‘whose minds and hearts are we trying to win; of the Afghans or of the US senators and representatives?’
US, NATO appear to be playing for time in tackling the Afghan quagmire. As the lame duck Administration in DC muddles through its last few months, an eerie lack of decision-making appears to haunt their performance. Such damned if you do and damned if you don’t paradigm undermines their goodwill/credibility all over. While the ISAF live through a nervous phase, the Taliban appear to be waiting for the kill that would end ‘occupation’ by foreigners and their collaborators.
This does not bode well for Pakistan as is apparent from the daily killings in Parachinar, Swat. As one Taliban leader said ominously that their tradition was ‘blood for blood’; and nothing much has changed to undo such determination.